By Courtney Bliler
Since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to the U.S. Congress on March 3rd, the political heat surrounding both U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and American-Israeli relations has only intensified. With Knesset elections planned to occur on March 17 and a framework agreement between the United States and Iran due by the end of March, tension will continue to escalate. Some effects of the speech come as no surprise including Netanyahu’s vague yet adamant warnings about a deal with the Iranians, Republican Congressional support for any political maneuver to undermine President Obama, and partisan divisions over the speech. Yet, recent events may have unforeseen repercussions: the potential to wrinkle the long, seemingly seamless fabric of U.S.-Israel relations and to cast a shadow on the so-called “special relationship” that is so frequently exalted by Washington and Jerusalem alike.
First, Netanyahu’s speech to the U.S. Congress on March 3rd further exposed the seemingly immutable partisan divide in Washington. John Boehner’s decision to invite Netanyahu to the Capital, just weeks before the widely anticipated Knesset elections back in Israel, was a blatant attempt to humiliate Obama on the national and international levels. Overall the consensus around this unprecedented political taboo is that it was the product of an extremely brazen Republican leadership. But beyond this obvious domestic divide, it deals directly with the consequences of U.S. foreign policy. It has threatened to turn U.S. policy toward Israel—one of the few issues in American politics that has traditionally enjoyed near-unanimous, bipartisan consensus—into a partisan affair.
Besides exacerbating partisan divides on Capitol Hill, Netanyahu’s haughtiness has aggravated divisions among the American Jewish community. Before boarding his plane in Tel Aviv to Washington, Netanyahu proclaimed that he was embarking on a “fateful, even historic, mission” as “the emissary of all Israelis, even those who disagree with me, of the entire Jewish People.”[i] Californian democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein deemed his statement “arrogant” and ignorant of the “different points of view” in the Jewish community.[ii] Moreover, thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews in New York City protested his visit, wielding signs stating, “We are ably represented, we don’t need a Bibi-sitter.”[iii] Protests led by American Jews also followed Netanyahu’s March 2nd speech at AIPAC.[iv]
On the Israeli side, Netanyahu most likely intended to use the speech to challenge President Obama and help his electoral prospects. However, while Netanyahu has been elected Prime Minister three times on a campaign promise to preserve Israel’s security against threats from Iran, Islamic terrorist organizations, the Palestinian territories and Arab states, his brazen statements have exposed divisions within the Israeli electorate. In Tel Aviv, tens of thousands gathered on March 7th in Yitzhak Rabin Square for an “Israel Wants Change” rally, calling for a change in Israeli leadership and expressing dissatisfaction with the Netanyahu administration.[v] In fact, security is not the primary concern for most Israeli citizens. Israeli social activists have protested the high living costs and housing shortages, which polls show are more important issues to voters than those pertaining to security and foreign policy.[vi][vii] Furthermore, mixed results from Israeli electoral polls hint that the March 17th showdown will be a neck and neck race.
Netanyahu’s tactic of exaggerating external political and military threats presented to Israel from Iran, Islamic extremists, and hostile Arab neighbors may have actually done little to help his electoral chances, at least if it holds true that domestic issues will sway the Israeli electorate. There can be little doubt, notwithstanding, that the Israeli election results are likely to have a significant impact on U.S.-Israel relations. It is certainly no secret that relations between Netanyahu and Obama have been discordant and contentious, a profound contrast from the traditional harmony of American-Israeli relations. In the best of situations, a new Israeli leadership may bring a less aggressive and hawkish military stance to fruition.
If Netanyahu is re-elected to a fourth term, it remains to be seen what relations between the United States and Israel will look like during the last two years of Obama’s presidency and beyond. Yet, it is important to note that it is unlikely, given the formidable strength of the U.S.-Israel lobby and the “special relationship” between the two nations, that Netanyahu’s speech and the partisanship surrounding it will have a permanent impact on American-Israeli relations. The 22 standing ovations given by almost every member of Congress to Netanyahu over the course of his approximately 40-minute speech demonstrated the tight bond between the United States and Israel.[viii] And while President Obama criticized Netanyahu for failing to provide any alternatives to ongoing negotiations and mocked Republican Senators for following up after the March 3rd speech with a letter to Iran seeking to unravel negotiations,[ix] he has reiterated that there remains a unique relationship shared between the United States and Israel that includes strong military and economic aid programs. In short, recent events have temporarily changed the equation, though nothing has yet changed in the grand calculus of U.S.-Israeli relations.
The tensions triggered by Netanyahu’s speech are emblematic of growing divisions between the Obama and Netanyahu administrations, deep partisanship in America’s domestic political landscape, and fractures within the Israeli electorate. Yet, while the relationship between the United States and Israel remains unbreakable in the long run, it has shown some cracks in the surface that could lead to a crossroads on some foreign policy issues. Overall, the future trajectory of American and Israeli domestic politics will play a significant role in this diplomatic relationship.
Footnotes
[i] Nick Allen, “Benjamin Netanyahu arrives in Washington on mission to thwart Iran deal,” The Telegraph, 2 March 2015. Web. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/11443805/Netanyahu-arrives-in-Washington-for-controversial-speech-on-Iran.html.
[ii] Ali Elkin, “Feinstein: Netanyahu ‘Arrogant’ to Say He Speaks for All Jews,” Bloomberg, 1 March 2015, Web. http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-01/feinstein-netanyahu-arrogant-to-say-he-speaks-for-all-jews.
[iii] “Thousands of Jews protest in NYC over Netanyahu’s speech,” Tehran Times, 5 March 2015, Web. http://www.tehrantimes.com/world/122333-thousands-of-jews-protest-in-nyc-over-netanyahus-speech.
[iv] “Jewish Protesters in anti-Netanyahu rally outside AIPAC,” Al Jazeera DC Dispatches, 3 March 2015, Web. http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/americas/2015/03/jewish-protesters-voice-anger-aipac-conference-150303044436010.html.
[v] Oren Lieberman, “Rally urges change in Israeli leadership,” CNN, 8 March 2015, Web. http://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/07/world/israel-protests/.
[vi] Allyn Fisher-Ilan, “Israeli activists pitch tents in pre-election housing protests,” Reuters, 1 March 2015, Web. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/01/us-israel-election-protest-idUSKBN0LX1P220150301.
[vii] Steven Scheer, “Whether ‘Bibi’ or ‘Bougie’, Israelis demand living costs relief,” Reuters, 10 March 2015, Web. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/10/israel-election-economics-idUSL5N0WB1ME20150310.
[viii] Philip Bump, “Benjamin Netanyahu vs. President Obama on the most important measure of all: Standing ovations,” The Washington Post, 3 March 2015. Web. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/03/03/benjamin-netanyahu-vs-president-obama-on-the-most-important-measure-of-all-standing-ovations/.
[ix] Peter Baker, “G.O.P. Senators’ Letter to Iran About Nuclear Deal Angers White House,” The New York Times, 9 March 2015, Web. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/10/world/asia/white-house-faults-gop-senators-letter-to-irans-leaders.html?src=me&module=Ribbon&version=context®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Most%20Emailed&pgtype=article.
