by Kristin Erickson
Russia: Taking Advantage of the Lame Duck Period
While most of the world anticipates the U.S. presidential election, some countries are taking advantage of this lame duck period - most notably Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad, using this time to strengthen their alliance. The conflict in Syria rages on.
Syria is in pure disarray; it’s a place that resembles little of the country it was before the civil war, which started five years ago. At roughly the one-year anniversary of Russia’s initial intervention, negotiations aimed at ending the Syrian war have yet to be resolved. Marked by Moscow’s first air strikes, Russia claimed that its September 2015 intervention targeted terrorists, but, instead, it has only strengthened the Assad regime. There is no sign that Russia is planning to reduce its military involvement in the near future. In fact, as Putin asserts, Russia never established a timeframe for its involvement in Syria.
Following the ill-fated mid-September ceasefire, the U.S. suspended diplomatic ties with Russia. After countless efforts to get on the same page, the countries continue to face divisions over policy in Syria. Russia has responded aggressively, moving a warship and cruise missiles into Syria, suspending a long-standing nuclear agreement with the U.S., and discussing a potential re-opening of military bases in Vietnam and Cuba. The Kremlin has also claimed that Russia will use its anti-aircraft missiles to shoot down any U.S. planes in Syrian airspace. Putin recognizes the strategic advantage of escalating Russia’s involvement in Syria during this lame duck period. Without opposition from the U.S. policymakers, who are distracted by the presidential transition period, Putin has a freehand.
Putin is using this time to his advantage, striving to secure a position of power in the Middle East. Before the war, Russia had only a small port in Tartus. Now, in addition to this fortified outpost, the government has airfields, fighter aircraft and experienced crews, and operational experience in this theater. Russia is more invested in Assad, in opposing the U.S. and in a strong military presence in the region than in the resolution of this war. While it seems likely the war will end in a stalemate, keeping the current government in power, Russia will find a reason to maintain its military presence in the region, perhaps as a guarantor of Syria’s “peace.”
During this lame duck period, U.S. leadership is less visible. The rest of the Western world, especially the EU, is hesitant to renew any sort of economic sanctions on the Kremlin. As the EU imports Russian oil, the stakes are higher for European. As an economic organization, the EU lacks other dissuasive tools.
Putin is flexing his muscles in Syria. The presidential and congressional transitions will leave the new U.S. executive unable to quickly implement major policy initiatives. With diplomatic ties suspended, the situation is even more complex and ought to be a priority for the new administration in January. All the while, Russia grows stronger and more confident, and Syrians continue to suffer.
Kristin Erickson is a junior at Dickinson College, where she studies International Studies and French.
