By Tyler Jiang
On November 8, 2016, in a dramatic upset, Donald J. Trump defeated Hillary R. Clinton in the United States presidential election. In the aftermath, many people are concerned about Trump’s proposed domestic policy, but, as president, Trump will also have to manage foreign policy for the nation. What he has said so far should worry leaders in Asia.
What seems to be Trump’s Asia policy?
Trump hasn’t articulated a cohesive foreign policy yet, but, during the campaign, he did state some of his intentions. He has said that he wants to levy a 45% tariff on Chinese goods, formally label China as a currency manipulator, and withdraw from American treaty obligations if these allies do not increase their contributions to the upkeep of American soldiers stationed in their nations. [1]
If he implements these policies, what will the results be?
The first two points focus on China and the economy. If a 45% tariff was levied on Chinese goods, this would prove disastrous for the economies of both nations. Not only would the price of consumer goods in the U.S. rise, it would also destroy trade between the countries. In 2015, the total trade between the United States and China was $600 billion, [2] with electronics and basic goods being imported from China. The tariff is Trump’s effort to protect American manufacturing from China’s cheap labor. These actions, as well as labeling China a currency manipulator, may destroy mutual trade between the two countries, as well as their respective economies, not to mention that China holds over $1 trillion in U.S. debt. [3]
Another concern for many U.S. allies across the globe is Donald Trump’s aversion towards alliances, which he may see through the lens of contractual/business agreements. He has made clear his disdain for NATO, as well as for more traditional defense pacts. This would disrupt the status quo in Asia, where the U.S. has four formal treaty allies: Philippines, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan. His policy would require these nations to provide more funding towards the upkeep of the U.S. forces or face the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
Should the U.S. withdraw from the region, this bodes well for China, who will face less resistance in its effort to become a regional power, rebalancing Pacific Rim power in Beijing’s favor as these nations turn to China for security. Though this would be ideal for China, nations in Asia have expressed concern about China’s rapid rise and military growth. Most likely, the withdrawal will weaken the security balance. Japan and South Korea will avoid allying with China due to regional tensions, such a clashes in the East and South China Seas, and both will start to develop their militaries to match China and North Korea. This will spark an arms race, which, in an effort to make up for lost nuclear deterrence, may escalate into Japanese and South Korean development of nuclear weapons, destabilizing the region.
Though President-Elect Trump has not created a formal foreign policy for Asia, should he follow through with his campaign promises, it could have dire consequences for the United States and Asia.
Asia is a delicate powder keg, and Trump may be the spark.
Tyler Jiang is a junior at Rowan University studying International Studies and History.
[1] Pamela Engel, “'Deeply concerned': Experts worry that Donald Trump is already endangering America's alliances abroad,” Business Insider (Jun 1, 2016). http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-endangering-alliances-2016-5
[2] Executive Office of the President, “People’s Republic of China,” Office of the United States Trade Representative, (accessed Nov 13, 2016). https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china
[3] CSIS, “Is it a risk for America that China holds over $1 trillion in US debt,” China Power: Unpacking the complexity of China’s rise (Accessed 11/17/2016). http://chinapower.csis.org/us-debt/
