By Ben Purper
Much has already been written about how surprised voters, pollsters, and the candidates themselves were at the election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. Which of his campaign promises he will actually carry out, and to what degree, remains to be seen. However, there is one region in the world where the stakes are particularly high: Latin America. While the election’s outcome most obviously impacts Mexico (the peso dropped over twelve percent following Hillary Clinton’s concession), the results leave future U.S.-Latin American relations in question, as most Latin American countries prepare to deal with a president they neither expected nor wanted.
Argentina under President Mauricio Macri, is an apt example of how these states reacted to Trump’s election; having previously voiced their preference for Clinton, they now have a tough pill to swallow. Earlier, Macri echoed fellow Argentine Pope Francis’ criticism of Trump when he said “I believe in relationships, in networks — we are, in fact, speaking with the world through a network — not in building walls… [It] would be hard to work with someone who would want to build walls.”
However, Macri’s disinclination towards Trump might have personal roots. In 1991, Macri was kidnapped and held ransom for twelve days, and his father Francisco Macri, a renowned Argentine businessman, allegedly blamed Trump for the incident. He quickly dismissed the theory, and no evidence has ever been found linking Trump to the kidnapping, but the episode nevertheless shows that “the elder Macri's dealings with Trump…left him with the impression that Trump could be treacherous enough to have ordered his son's kidnapping years after their business relationship ended.” If Macri still harbors any personal enmity towards Trump, however, he has not shown it. After the election, he tweeted: “I congratulate @realDonaldTrump on his victory, and I hope that we can work together for the good of our countries.”
From an international relations perspective, Macri probably has little to worry about in a Trump presidency; Argentina ranks low in American foreign policy priorities, and Macri’s administration is intent on maintaining positive relations with the U.S. – part of an effort to re-integrate the country into the global economy. The same holds true for most South American countries (excluding Venezuela, whose recent backslide into authoritarianism will likely further spoil its already poor relations with the U.S.) that will likely face only temporary market volatility and the inconvenience of dealing with a U.S. president they find unpleasant.
Mexico and Central America, however, have more to lose under a Trump presidency. President-elect Trump is sticking to his campaign promise that Mexico will “[fully-fund] the construction of a wall on our southern border with the full understanding that the country of Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall,” a claim that Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto has denied. Trump has threatened to coerce the Mexican government into paying for the wall by taxing remittances, an estimated 24 billion USD, sent from individuals in the United States to their families in Mexico. Additionally, Trump’s hostility to free-trade agreements, such as NAFTA, could damage the Mexican economy. While Trump has not singled out Central American countries such as Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, his plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants who have committed crimes could further destabilize the Northern Triangle region, which is already one of the most crime-ridden areas in the world.
For now, Latin American governments can only wait and see if the incoming Trump administration implements its campaign promises. At the moment, the future looks relatively bleak. Most South American countries should not see drastic differences, especially in those countries (Argentina, Colombia) where foreign policy goals necessitate cooperation with the U.S. regardless of who occupies the Oval Office. However, others states, such as Mexico and the Northern Triangle countries, have little reason to be optimistic. Even if the president-elect does not enact everything he promised on the campaign trail, his campaign has set an uncooperative tone likely to characterize the next four years.
Benjamin Purper is a senior at the University of Redlands, where he studies International Relations and Instrumental Performance.
