By Tiger Huang
Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the November 8 U.S presidential election received much attention in China. As mass protests against Trump erupted across a number of major U.S cities, Chinese netizens celebrated on social media platform Weibo [1], and some stores even went as far as offering sales in response to the U.S election results.
In a November 13 phone call, President Xi Jinping was quick to congratulate Trump, expressing that he “look[s] forward to working [with Trump] to uphold the principles of non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation.” [2]
Despite Trump’s virulent rhetoric against China, many officials believe he will treat Beijing as an equal, and, ultimately, his foreign policy will be a strategic boon to China’s return to power.
A Political Victory for China
Geopolitically, Trump’s isolationist foreign policies are a far shift from Obama’s “Pivot to Asia”, which Beijing saw as a thinly-veiled term for military containment. Throughout his campaign, Trump had promised to decrease defense spending in South Korea and Japan, which he referred to as “freeloaders”, and he remained silent about the South China Sea dispute. For Beijing, Trump’s policies represent a recognition of China’s role as an equal power in East Asia. At the expense of the United States’ allies, China will be able to gain prestige and pursue a more assertive foreign policy in East Asia.
As described in his 100-day plan, Trump’s vow to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership would allow China to accomplish two of its biggest goals in international trade. U.S. withdrawal from the multilateral trade agreement bodes well for Beijing, which saw the agreement as a clear attempt to exclude China from trade in the Asia-Pacific region. As the U.S turns inward, China can simply fill the vacuum, replacing TPP with its own trade agreements. At a December summit in Peru, President Xi Jinping met with other Asian-Pacific countries to discuss the China-led ‘Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific’ (FTAAP). Along with the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, the FTAAP will facilitate China’s increasingly important role as a leader in the global economy.
Ideologically, the chaos of the U.S presidential elections has tainted the image of the American democratic system and presented Beijing with an opportunity to justify its authoritarian rule. China’s state-run media has criticized issues as diverse as the Electoral College, Trump’s lack of political experience, and ironically, biased media coverage during the elections. As an example, The Global Times, a state-run news publication, quoted “if such a person can be president, there is something wrong with the existing political order.” [3]
Internationally, Trump’s policies will further affirm the beginning of U.S. retrenchment from foreign affairs, as it redirects its attention towards domestic issues. As leaders, such as Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines and Najib Razak of Malaysia, are already seeking closer ties with Beijing, other neighboring countries may follow suit in face of a stronger and more prosperous China in East Asia and the Pacific.
Potential Economic Catastrophe
Despite China’s political victory, Trump’s radical reforms could just as easily act as a double-edged sword towards China’s stagnating economic growth.
In line with his protectionist rhetoric, Trump has promised to label China as a “currency manipulator,” vowed to return Chinese manufacturing jobs to the U.S., and threatened to slap a 45% tariff on all Chinese imports. While Beijing officials may be quick to dismiss these threats as mere campaign rhetoric, Trump’s actions could have serious consequences for the Chinese and global economy.
Trump’s call to deregulate the Chinese RMB as a free-floating currency would stifle China’s economic growth. Given China’s focus on export-oriented development since its Opening Up and Reform in 1978, an artificially low currency has served the dual purpose of a tariff against foreign imports and a subsidy to China’s foreign exports. The policy may account for up to more than 2% of the country’s GDP growth today. [4]
Under these circumstances, Beijing would be extremely unlikely to accept Trump’s propositions, which may result in the implementation of promised U.S. tariffs. With $483 billion in net exports to the U.S in 2015, China’s economy, already fighting declining export-manufacturing industries and an unstable stock market, will undeniably suffer.
Yet Beijing too has threatened a ‘tit for tat’ retaliation against potential Trump’s tariffs, resulting in a trade war. While the outcome of such a dispute is unclear, it would undoubtedly slow China’s growth, but also hurt U.S-China relations, and disrupt the global economy.
A New Chapter in US-China Relations
Currently, the inconsistencies of Trump’s policies open up a plethora of possibilities for China and the U.S. As Jia Qingguo, the Dean of the School of International Relations at Peking University notes, Trump is “a symbol of uncertainty”, who would make it difficult to predict what the future presidency would entail for China [5].
The only certain fact is that Trump’s presidency would marks the beginning of a new phase in China’s rise and its relationship with the U.S, marked by mutual collaboration, open conflict, or a combination of both.
Tiger Huang is a sophomore studying International Relations and Finance at the University of Pennsylvania.
[1] Wu, J., “Chinese Netizens React over Trump's Victory,” China.org.cn (11 November, 2016). http://www.china.org.cn/china/2016-11/11/content_39686305.htm
[2] Hernandez, J.C., “Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s Leader, Hold Cordial First Phone Call,” New York Times (14 November, 2016). http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/world/asia/trump-china-xi-jinping.html
[3] Global Times, “China Strong Enough to Cope with Trump Victory,” Global Times (November 9, 2016). http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1016894.shtml
[4] U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Report to Congress: Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States,” (April 29, 2016).
[5] Reuters, “Donald Trump’s Victory Raises Questions in China,” Fortune (November 9, 2016). http://fortune.com/2016/11/09/donald-trump-win-china/
