by Daniel Metz
Ringing a familiar and yet disconcerting tune, the bells of Mosul toll to the inevitable liberation of the Iraqi peoples. For the second time in a little over a decade, the Iraqi city, weathered by more than two years of ruthless authoritarian rule under the Islamic State, is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. But what is it about Mosul that commands such importance to the future of Iraq?
Originally a city of nearly two million, Mosul has been occupied by the Islamic State since it fell on June 10, 2014. Since that time, its residents have faced a relentless series of atrocities and oppressive laws, constricting every aspect of society. Scores of refugees have fled from their homes, and, in the past two years, Mosul’s population has been nearly sliced in half. This is also the city in which leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, declared a new caliphate, showing the world that the terrorist group was capable enough to rule territory from a proclaimed capitol city.
Fast forward to October 17, 2016, an operation to retake the city began, and cracks in the authority of ISIS’ crumbling caliphate are beginning to show. From the south, 30,000 Iraqi Security Force (ISF) troops approach Mosul, drudging slowly against the booby traps and explosives set in place by the Islamic State. The ISF troops have been joined by 4,700 special advisors from Iran, Britain, Germany, France, and the U.S., and on November 1, for the first time since it fell, the ISF crossed the Mosul city limits, although they still have several miles to go before they reach the city center. The ISF is also receiving air support from the U.S., which has been conducting airstrikes since the start of the operation. To the west, 10,000 troops from the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), Iran-backed Shiite militias, push toward Tal Afar, a town west of Mosul that had a Shiite majority until 2014. The PMU publicly claimed that it will not enter Mosul, but the group has so far regained control of numerous villages in the west. From the north, 10,000 Peshmerga troops, the militias of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), drill downward directly to Mosul. In a series of statements, the Kurds assert that they are merely regaining territory lost to the Islamic State and have no plans to enter Mosul proper.
Despite reports of civilian human shields, indiscriminate executions, and massive displacement, the Battle for Mosul looks promising. While the operation will likely last several months, its momentum empowers the ISF and has the potential to diminish the influence of the PMU, a group that has been exacerbating sectarian conflicts since 2014. This momentum could also translate over to coalition forces in Syria and eradicate the Islamic State from Raqqa. This same momentum may lead the Kurds to fully declare their independence.
This does, however, put immense pressure on the people of Mosul. In 2014, after former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki spent years politicizing the Iraqi army, the citizens of Mosul were more willing face threats of the Islamic State rather than continue under the sectarianism system that had been put into place. They effectively allowed the lesser of two evils to come into power. Current Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi should encourage a stronger system of decentralization, allowing the citizens of Mosul more control over their local government. With the right moves, the country known for unparalleled instability over the last 13 years can finally take a step in the right direction.
Daniel Metz is a senior at Indiana University, where he studies Journalism, Central Eurasian Studies, and Political Science.
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