By Paul Oshinski, Blogger for European Affairs
As the U.S. media continues to cover the alleged impact of Kremlin cyber tactics on the 2016 U.S. presidential election, tensions between Russia and the United States have escalated and NATO has revamped its military presence in the Baltic region. This escalation comes in response to Russian attempts to both influence politics in Baltic states and incite civil upheaval through state-sponsored cyber warfare. Paired with Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and a number of close calls between Russian aircrafts and NATO allies in international airspace, the two nations have an increasingly strained relationship only exacerbated by the United States’ austere economic sanctions – a response to Russia’s revanchist efforts. Additionally, President Vladimir Putin has bolstered Kaliningrad, a small Russian exclave situated between Poland and Lithuania. As the United States and Russia reciprocate military augmentations in the tense Baltic region, these testy exchanges are reminiscent of the Cold War-era security dilemma.
Most recently, the United States shipped hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles, and various other military equipages to Bremerhaven, Germany, where the martial equipment will be disseminated to the Baltic states and other Eastern European NATO members. Correspondingly, NATO has scheduled a military demonstration for late January in Poland – a symbolic military exposition aimed at confirming NATO’s commitment to protecting the Baltics from potential Russian attempts at territorial expansion.
NATO’s military amplifications, spearheaded by the Obama administration, come at the heels of President Trump’s incendiary comments regarding the U.S.’ pledge to protect the Baltic nations from Moscow. When asked about the U.S.’ commitment to protecting these states from a Russian invasion, Trump argued that the United States would only protect the Baltics if they fulfilled their economic and martial obligations to NATO. Additionally, Trump’s cozy relationship with Russia has generated a sense of trepidation among Baltic citizens and politicians who fear for the future of their countries given Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Responding to Trump’s statements, President Barack Obama has taken a strong stance towards ensuring NATO’s commitment to the Baltics, stating that a Russian attack on a NATO member state would be equivalent to a Russian attack on U.S. soil.
Part of the renewed strain in Russo-American relations has played out in Kaliningrad, the small Russian territory located in the heart of the Baltic region. This exclave is a strategic area neighboring the Baltics, and the Kremlin regularly deploys soldiers and large-scale military equipment to the territory. Recently, Russia stationed powerful Iksander missiles in Kaliningrad, along with new air defense systems and other formidable military equipment. Though NATO and the Baltics perceive Russia’s efforts to heavily arm Kaliningrad as both a way to test NATO’s commitment to the Baltic states and intimidate the former Soviet countries within the region, Russia contends that bolstering Kaliningrad is a routine military procedure intended to protect the vulnerable Russian territory from NATO’s own intimidation measures. As both NATO and Russia increase their military presence in the Baltics in response to each other, this tit-for-tat security dilemma evokes the USSR and the United States stockpiling nuclear armaments.
Present Russo-American relations are not entirely analogous to Cold War era tactics: Russia and NATO have modernized their foreign policy strategies, employing online propaganda, hacking, and other cyber warfare efforts. For example, in 2016, Lithuania conducted a military simulation, in which a ship was contaminated with a chemical substance. Though the chemical substance was nontoxic and the procedure was simply a simulation to prepare military forces for an actual chemical spill, a Russian propaganda outlet fabricated a news story, falsely reporting that five Lithuanians were killed as a result of the military exercise. Lithuanian’s state department director, Darius Jauniskis, asserted that the Baltics receive “an avalanche of propaganda against our states”, stemming predominantly from the Kremlin. In response to Russia’s cyber warfare efforts aimed at inciting civil unrest, the Baltic rim states have increased their military expenditures and have also welcomed U.S. special forces into the countries for additional military training. In the past two years, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania have increased their military budget by nearly $180 million, a striking augmentation in their defense budgets that is likely a response to Russia’s perceived expansionist mentality.
As tensions have increased between Russia and the United States in the Baltic region, parallels can be drawn between current Russo-American relations and the countries’ interactions during the Cold War. However, technological advancements have altered the nature of the Russo-American and Russo-NATO relations, enabling the Kremlin to target the Baltic states and other countries with cyber warfare and online propaganda. Combined with Russia’s hacking of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the weapons and defense buildups in Kaliningrad, and previous events, such as the annexation of Crimea and international airspace breaches by Russian air forces, the United States has responded to Russian aggressions by boosting their military presence in the Baltic region, preparing the Baltic rim states for a prospective Russian invasion, and magnifying defense budgets for NATO member states near the Russian border. Though President Trump has promised an improved relationship between the two superpowers, recent developments in the Baltics insinuate that Russo-American relations are far from reaching any form of détente.
Paul Oshinski is a Junior at the University of Georgia, where he studies political science and international affairs.
