By Daniel Loud, Special Contributor for Intelligence-related Issues
There is no doubt that, over the last few years, China has been following a much more assertive policy in its near abroad. At the center of this aggressive shift is the South China Sea, where China has competing territorial claims with several neighboring states. Although China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea appears to be a key element of Beijing’s foreign policy, the Obama administration responded to Chinese moves with only partial success. As such, the first challenge to the Trump administration from China will likely involve this contested region of the world. If President Trump is to be successful in dealing with China on this issue, his administration must gain an understanding of what China hopes to accomplish in the South China Sea. Perhaps the best insight into China’s strategic goals in the contested waters is its controversial land recovery (also known as island building) of reefs throughout the South China Sea. As these islands are considered the most outward symbol of China’s assertiveness, intelligence officials can analyze developments on the islands to get a better grasp of what China hopes to achieve in the region.
Speculations regarding China’s motives have run the gamut from optimistic to terrifying, an issue compounded by conflicting opinions between and within American and Chinese foreign policy circles. Openly, China has stated that its island building “is guided by the principle of… amity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness” (Dolven et al., 14). Chinese spokespeople have often stated that the island building is meant to enhance maritime security in one of the world’s most traversed sea-lanes. These statements often insist that this security is not just for Chinese ships but also for its neighbors and any other nation engaging in trade in the region. However, private statements by officials provide a different view of the island building. These statements cited equally large island building by China’s neighbors, which Chinese officials see as an “encroachment on China’s interests” (Dolven et al., 16). This implies that China is in fact playing catch-up with its neighbors, portraying a much more competitive spirit in Chinese island building, which may be aimed at defending against threats from China’s neighbors. American analysts paint a more dire picture. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a leading authority on the issue, has cited several potential motives that involve increasing Chinese power. These motives include obtaining a strangle-hold on trade in the South China Sea, extending surveillance to neighboring countries, and carrying out sustained military operations in China’s near abroad.
To effectively handle Chinese island building in the South China Sea, some consensus must be reached on China’s intentions in the region. As official statements are unhelpful, the best way to determine what China hopes to accomplish will involve monitoring the new islands, a task various intelligence agencies will likely undertake. A study by CSIS, called Build It and They Will Come, provides a model of what role intelligence could play in such a task. This study used satellite images to describe specific facilities China was building on several of its islands, and it discussed how the Chinese could potentially use the islands to accomplish Beijing’s larger goals. They noticed several hangars on each island, indicating that the islands would be useful for either air support or some type of air support or surveillance. Similarly, CSIS developed a map which, based off of analysis of the facilities, pointed out areas where China could likely carry out advanced surveillance.
The CSIS studies mentioned above exemplify how intelligence agencies could help formulate an effective policy in the South China Sea. By analyzing specific facilities on the islands built by China, intelligence analysts could determine what exact capabilities, military or otherwise, the islands grant Beijing. These enhanced capabilities will ultimately provide a glimpse into what China can and most likely hopes to accomplish in the South China Sea, thereby illuminating China’s strategy in the region and allowing the US to make smarter decisions on China going forward.
Daniel Loud is a junior at UPenn, where he studies International Relations.
