By Blake White
Tuesday October 11, 2016, Houthi rebels (Yemeni insurgents) launched a second missile attack at the U.S. warship Mason off of the Yemen Coast. Though this attack could have proved lethal, the missile fell short and didn’t hit the warship. Thursday Oct. 13, 2016, the U.S. fired cruise missiles at radar instillations that were allegedly used by Houthi forces. This marks the first U.S. attack in Yemen since the beginning of the Yemen Civil War. This escalation begs the question: what does this move mean for the future of the Yemen civil war?
The civil war began in 2015 when a tribal Shia group called Houthi took over the government by force. After this, other states became involved in the war. Saudi Arabia began to lead Yemen military loyal to the former Yemen president, Hadi, in a coalition against the insurgents. The United States, although allied with Saudi Arabia and the former government of President Hadi, has been attempting to negotiate a peace treaty between the two warring factions. Additional rumors suggest the Houthis receive funds and arms from Iran. Likewise, in the past, the U.S. has supported Saudi-led forces through intelligence and refueling their aircrafts. Terrorist organization, namely Al-Qaeda and ISIS, have infiltrated the region as well with a significant presence in the east of Yemen. In total, at least seven actors play a role in this conflict.
Why are there so many parties involved in the Yemen civil war? Fundamental differences between Shia and Sunni Islam have been used as a pretense for various conflicts. Iran is primarily a Shia state, while Saudi Arabia hosts a Sunni majority. Although the two countries are not in direct conflict with one another, Saudi Arabia and Iran tend to side with groups or states that are of their same form of Islam. Yemen, which is led by a Sunni government allies with Saudi Arabia. Iran, one of the few majority Shia state, aids the Shia Houthis. Al-Qaeda and ISIS tend to become involved in areas where there are power vacuums and conflicts. These situations create opportunities for terrorist groups to gain power, such as ISIS has done in Iraq and Syria. Although there may be additional motives for their involvement, this serves as a basis as to why these actors have entered into the Yemen Civil War.
Why is the U.S. involved then? While the U.S. has tried to remain neutral, it has been striving to keep good relations with Saudi Arabia. Saudi support of U.S. interests is critical to maintaining influence in the region as well as keeping trade routes open. Houthi attacks against the U.S. were prompted by an airstrike against Houthi funeral. Although they deny involvement, Saudi forces have been blamed. President Obama has previously stated that the U.S. limited its support for the Saudi-led forces and would reassess the American-Saudi alliance. Houthi forces, however, still fired missiles at the U.S. warship, and the U.S. retaliated in defense. If Houthi militants continue to launch attacks against U.S. warships, the U.S. may become more involved in the war, defending the sea route in the region and striving to end the conflict.
However, it is more likely that the U.S will attempt to remain neutral in the clash. Further escalation of the fighting could worsen relations with Iran and other Shia groups. Another factor to consider is the absence of UN. support for Saudi Arabian involvement in the conflict. The UN has criticized the number of citizen casualties the Saudi-led forces have caused. The U.S. therefore will probably adhere to Obama’s statement and curb its support for Saudi-forces.
Blake White is a senior studying International Studies at Utah State University.
