By Joyee Au-Yeung
The delayed summer 2020 Olympics are expected to start this July, but Tokyo’s path to hosting the Olympics successfully and safely during a pandemic is turbulent. The Olympics were seen as a ray of hope for normalcy in the world, but as we edge closer to July, it becomes clear that the pandemic may have greatly changed the cost-benefit matrix of hosting the games. A mega-sport event now runs the risk of being a super-spreader gathering, and the usual appeal of the Olympics in terms of soft power, tourist appeal, and sport diplomacy are diminished. Soft power is defined as a country’s ability to shape other countries’ preferences through cultural or socioeconomic appeal and attract allies. The Tokyo Olympics is perfect for shining a spotlight on Japan to illustrate her beauty and prowess, and thus encourage others to co-opt her values.
This year’s Olympics may bring higher financial and socioeconomic costs to Tokyo than expected, with citizens concerned about the potential public health costs of hosting. COVID-19 has exacerbated the financial burden of hosting due to increased virus monitoring, health maintenance, and testing costs. Tokyo has reportedly spent around $75 million USD on the Olympics bid for the International Olympics Committee. The cost involved in submitting the bid includes evaluations, planning, consultations and organization fees, while the Olympics budget including contract negotiations, virus countermeasures and sports programs being $15.4 billion USD. The Olympics are notoriously expensive even pre-pandemic, with costs spiraling to over $45 billion USD for Beijing in 2008, and $20 billion USD for Rio de Janeiro’s 2016 summer games. In pre-COVID times, host countries consider the Olympics a good deal despite the narrow profit margins. The initial investment into the Olympics produces a strong national image, strengthens diplomatic relations, and draws tourists from all over the world. In particular, the Tokyo Games were expected to draw $300 billion USD worth of tourism. However, the financial rewards of hosting are lowered today as the Tokyo Organising Committee of the Olympic and Paralympic Games struggles to determine if they should allow foreign fans to attend the games. Even though fans only make up a small segment of the total revenue, limiting travel influx may produce significant losses for Japan’s revenue and publicity.
Furthermore, Japan’s financial burden is compounded by unforeseen public health concerns that may bring domestic political discontent. Eighty percent of Japanese citizens think the Olympics should be postponed again or cancelled seeing as though Japan struggled to manage the pandemic after Shinzo Abe’s disastrous domestic travel campaign that encouraged high-risk individuals to travel and increased virus transmission domestically. In Ipsos’ January 2020 survey on people’s willingness and enthusiasm to be inoculated by country, only 19% of Japanese respondents “strongly” agreed to get vaccines once available, and there is little information about how many people were willing to receive the vaccine. There is “a prevalent wait-and-see” attitude since the start of vaccination efforts in February, and as of April 14, less than 1% of the Japanese population has received at least one dose while total cases in the country surpass 500,000. Herd-immunity by July may be too ambitious of a goal, and the Olympics can easily turn into a catalyst for a fourth wave outbreak. In contrast to the rising costs of hosting the games, the diplomatic and financial rewards of hosting have been greatly diminished. The Olympics are often meant to project a powerful, flourishing national image of the host country and provide opportunities for sport diplomacy. Hosting the Olympic games showcases a country’s attractiveness and appeal, thus increasing their soft power and global standing. For example, the 2008 Beijing Olympics enabled China to “revamp their image,” showcase rich cultural traditions and the strong economy. This image was also complemented by the multiple gold medals China won during the games. Japan wishes to reprise the glory of the 1964 Tokyo Olympic Games to elevate domestic and global spirits and illustrate how a prestigious sporting event can be held in post-pandemic times. Furthermore, Prime Minister Suga is also hoping for a smooth hosting experience to save his approval ratings and cement his leadership position in Japan.
Similarly, the 2021 Olympics may serve as an opportunity for Japan to construct better relationships with existing allies such as the United States as well as initiate friendly contact with other states, such as China. During the 2018 Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, South Korea also demonstrated how sports can ease tensions even between fierce rivals such as North Korea and South Korea, as participating in the Olympics effectively created an opportunity for face-to-face contact between the countries’ leaders, which was historically difficult. Furthermore, the countries’ delegations built personal relationships that helped broker cortical relations between the two powers as well.
The risk-reward matrix for hosting the Tokyo Olympics have been drastically altered by the pandemic, making the event high risk and medium reward, especially considering the potential public health consequences.
Joyee Au Yeung is a senior studying Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at the University of Pennsylvania.
