Last updated: Nov. 2, 2022
Following the fall of Kabul on August 15, 2021, the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF), a military alliance made up of former members of the Northern Alliance and other anti-Taliban fighters, was formed to officially commence an organized resistance to the Taliban's rule in Afghanistan. The front is led by Ahmad Massoud, son of anti-Soviet military leader Ahmad Shah Massoud, and maintains de facto control over Punisher Valley, the only area in Afghanistan which is out of the Taliban’s control. The NRF is also backed by Amrullah Saleh, former First Vice President of the Republic of Afghanistan, and his supporters. The apparent ideologies of the front are decentralization, social justice, and freedom from the foreign intervention. Following the Taliban’s cabinet announcement, NRF leaders fiercely criticized the monopolistic structure of the new government and called for an inclusive cabinet. They push for a more decentralized democratic system in Afghanistan, one that empowers provincial and local authorities—similar to the federal structure of the Swiss or Americans.
The NRF's military wing is largely made up of former Afghan security forces and commandos. It does not consider itself a militia, but a professional military force working for the freedom of all Afghans, regardless of their ethnicity and beliefs. The front does, however, fly a flag with the colors green, white, and black, similar to that of the Northern alliance. This issue has prompted some criticism of the NRF’s inclusiveness and the nature of its goal. However, criticisms cannot remain confined to the flag issue, as the name and aim of the NRF are also being growingly misused by its proponents. Clusters of NRF supporters of Tajik ethnicity have recently started spreading direct signals of secessionism on social media. These supporters claim to be citizens of Greater Khorasan, a region which previously comprised Afghanistan, southern parts of Central Asia, and northeastern Iran. The supporters call Afghanistan “a failed marriage,” and demand the partition of the country. This would result in Pashtuns being merged with Pakistan,while Tajiks and other non-Pashtun ethnicities would be part of Iran and Tajikistan, thereby forming the historical Khorasan. The fact that Tajikistan, formerly a part of Greater Khorasan, is an alleged ally of the NRF morally empowers these claims and demands. Tajikistan has also offered refuge to leading figures of the NRF including Ahmad Massoud, Amrullah Saleh, and Abdul Latif Pedram. Joe Biden’s recent remarks on the inability of Afghanistan to be united under a single government have also given more voice to the NRF supporters who advocate for secession. In a recent tweet, Abdul Latif Pedram, a leading figure of the NRF, endorsed Biden’s remarks and has called for partition and disintegration.
Now, the question is whether the NRF supporters will try to manipulate their leaders’ call for decentralization and federalism in order to initiate a Balkanization (succession) agenda, or more pointedly, whether it is possible that the NRF would strategically undergo a shift in its foreign policy from “unity” to “secession”.
The term Balkanization refers to the break-up of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia into the Balkans at the end of World War II, as a result of cultural and religious divisions. Balkanization has different instances in the path of history including the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Today, the term is generally used to describe the split of a multinational state into smaller ethnically homogeneous states.
In all incidents, regardless of the region in which it took place, the Balkanization process has entailed violence, political trauma, destruction, and economic retrogression. Although the campaign for the partition of Afghanistan does not currently involve physical violence, cyber violence that could instigate such a process in Afghanistan is being carried with full force. Official Twitter accounts affiliated with the NRF spread messages that invoke Pan-Khorasanist sentiments among NRF proponents, including tweets describing the endeavors of Qasim Suleimani, a famous Iranian military officer who served in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, to defend Tajik people and resuscitate Khorasan’s culture. On the other hand, Abdul Latif Pedram is also contributing to the Twitter campaign by spreading messages that fuel the demands for the partition of Afghanistan. He also refers to Afghanistan as “Khorasan'' in his tweets. His strong opposition to Pashtuns is also well-known among Afghans. Moreover, a number of prominent journalists are also promoting this campaign.
According to Ali Maisam Nazary, Head of Foreign Relations for the NRF, “The front has the support of the diaspora communities which could make a big difference. It is also on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Clubhouse, Twitter Spaces, and other social networking platforms. NRF leaders and supporters are organizing, mobilizing, spreading awareness, and influencing public opinion in every way imaginable. And this is the front's strongest point.” Social media campaigns by Afghan elites and intellectual figures seem to be a preliminary phase of the promotion and propagation of the Balkanization agendas for NRF supporters. This is particularly alarming as the dissolution of Yugoslavia also started with intellectual and elite debates on public platforms. Following the death of Yugoslav President Josip Broz Tito in 1980, a group of 60 writers, journalists, poets, and public figures in Slovania signed a petition calling for the creation of a forum for open intellectual discourse, including the right to political criticism. The petition also asked for the right to start a new independent publishing dedicated to intellectual debate. The campaign also involved a series of concerts that promoted the idea through music and performance.
There is also news that Ahmad Massoud is lobbying for financial and military aid from the US and plans to announce a parallel Afghanistan. Aid from the US initiated the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In 1988, Estonia was the first Soviet republic to declare its independence from the Union. The republics continued declaring independence and recognizing each other until Mikhail Gorbachev resigned and the Soviet Union officially dissolved in December 1991. One of the strongest factors that led to a successful secession process for the Soviet republics was the fact that they gained recognition and support extremely quickly; this is what the NRF is working on at the moment.
In a nutshell, the recent elite campaigns are shifting the NRF’s foreign policy and shaping the public opinion about its goals. Whether these efforts will eventually lead to a Balkanization process is largely dependent on the strength of the Front and its ability to gain the trust of foreign actors. While none of the foreign powers recognize the Taliban’s government, Tajikistan’s approval of the NRF indicates a move towards increased support for the Front.
Maryam Jami is an LLM student at the University of Pittsburgh, School of Law. She has worked as a researcher with the Institute of War and Peace Studies, a project consultant with the University of Massachusetts Amherst, Human Security Lab, and a legal researcher with International Bridges to Justice (IBJ). Her area of research is International Law, Human Rights, International Relations, and War and Peace Studies. Her works have appeared in Oxford Human Rights Hub Journal, Groningen Journal of International Law, International Human Rights Law Review, India Quarterly (Sage Journals), and International Law Association (ILA) quarterly.
