Last updated: Nov. 11, 2022
On May 12, 2022, Washington DC welcomed leaders from the ten Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states at the first in-person US-ASEAN Special Summit hosted by the Biden administration. Recognizing ASEAN’s geopolitical and economic importance, the Biden administration saw the summit as an opportunity to engage with ASEAN and to align the group with Washington’s vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region. However, the two-day conference concluded without reassurance for ASEAN’s lingering skepticism towards the US's actual commitment to the region. The high-profile summit only produced a repetitive joint statement that left two elements central to US-ASEAN relations unaddressed.
The US and ASEAN do not share the same vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific. From the perspective of the United States, the Indo-Pacific strategy is an anti-China policy. Washington DC claims that America’s intensifying focus on the region is a reaction to the PRC’s growing coercion and aggression which undermine global stability and prosperity. However, ASEAN sees the “Indo-Pacific” as an inclusive term to address the organization’s centrality in the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean region. By adopting this concept, ASEAN has declared itself to be neutral by refusing to side with the US or China. Instead, ASEAN welcomes all major powers as strategic partners.
While attempting to distance ASEAN from the PRC’s influence, the United States fails to prove itself to be a reliable partner. After the Trump administration jeopardized America’s chance to increase its leadership and alliances in the region by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Biden administration followed the same path. With the announcement of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework in October 2021, there have been expectations for an increasing US presence in the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean region. However, nothing was ratified at the US-ASEAN Special Summit. At the same time, ASEAN and China already have the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which took effect in January 2022. RCEP, the world’s largest free trade deal, is not only a “victory of multilateralism and free trade”, as claimed by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, but also a geopolitical win for China. The deal deepens Asia’s economic intra-dependence and will bring ASEAN closer to China's sphere of influence. Beijing will leverage its economic might, by far the largest in the region, to shape regulation and standards within the bloc.
The United States cannot force ASEAN to pick a side. What the United States can accomplish is to respect the organization’s neutrality and work with ASEAN partners to negotiate a trade deal. Promoting free trade has been the most powerful tool of American diplomacy since World War II. If the Biden administration cannot develop a trade agenda that appeals to Southeast Asia, the number of summits held in Washington does not matter.
The new trade deal must be adaptive to the current situation in Southeast Asia where there are countries like Vietnam and Myanmar that are not democracies and countries backsliding from democracy such as the Philippines and Thailand. A lot of countries in Southeast Asia emerged from imperial systems, a traumatic experience that formulates ASEAN’s cynicism towards a western power in their hemisphere. Applying strict western values and obsolete international norms which take a deep root in racism and colonialism will not narrow the gap between the United States and its Southeast Asian partners. Unless the United States is willing to compromise in negotiating a new trade deal, no deal will ever be signed. Not having a US-ASEAN trade deal would mean an increase in China’s influence and downfall of the America’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
Son-Mai Phan is a Masters student of International Studies: Southeast Asian Studies at the University of Washington.
